資本資産価格設定モデル (CAPM)
資本資産価格モデル(CAPM)は、 Adobe普通株式などのリスク資産の期待収益率または必要な収益率を示します。
収益率
Adobe Inc.、月間収益率
| Adobe Inc. (ADBE) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | 日付 | 価格ADBE,t1 | 配当ADBE,t1 | RADBE,t2 | 価格S&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 2019/12/31 | $329.81 | 3,230.78 | ||||
| 1. | 2020/01/31 | $351.14 | 6.47% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% | |
| 2. | 2020/02/29 | $345.12 | -1.71% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% | |
| 3. | 2020/03/31 | $318.24 | -7.79% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% | |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | 2025/10/31 | $340.31 | -3.53% | 6,840.20 | 2.27% | |
| 71. | 2025/11/30 | $320.13 | -5.93% | 6,849.09 | 0.13% | |
| 平均 (R): | 0.45% | 1.19% | ||||
| 標準偏差： | 9.97% | 4.97% | ||||
| Adobe Inc. (ADBE) | Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t | 日付 | 価格ADBE,t1 | 配当ADBE,t1 | RADBE,t2 | 価格S&P 500,t | RS&P 500,t3 |
| 2019/12/31 | $329.81 | 3,230.78 | ||||
| 1. | 2020/01/31 | $351.14 | 6.47% | 3,225.52 | -0.16% | |
| 2. | 2020/02/29 | $345.12 | -1.71% | 2,954.22 | -8.41% | |
| 3. | 2020/03/31 | $318.24 | -7.79% | 2,584.59 | -12.51% | |
| 4. | 2020/04/30 | $353.64 | 11.12% | 2,912.43 | 12.68% | |
| 5. | 2020/05/31 | $386.60 | 9.32% | 3,044.31 | 4.53% | |
| 6. | 2020/06/30 | $435.31 | 12.60% | 3,100.29 | 1.84% | |
| 7. | 2020/07/31 | $444.32 | 2.07% | 3,271.12 | 5.51% | |
| 8. | 2020/08/31 | $513.39 | 15.55% | 3,500.31 | 7.01% | |
| 9. | 2020/09/30 | $490.43 | -4.47% | 3,363.00 | -3.92% | |
| 10. | 2020/10/31 | $447.10 | -8.84% | 3,269.96 | -2.77% | |
| 11. | 2020/11/30 | $478.47 | 7.02% | 3,621.63 | 10.75% | |
| 12. | 2020/12/31 | $500.12 | 4.52% | 3,756.07 | 3.71% | |
| 13. | 2021/01/31 | $458.77 | -8.27% | 3,714.24 | -1.11% | |
| 14. | 2021/02/28 | $459.67 | 0.20% | 3,811.15 | 2.61% | |
| 15. | 2021/03/31 | $475.37 | 3.42% | 3,972.89 | 4.24% | |
| 16. | 2021/04/30 | $508.34 | 6.94% | 4,181.17 | 5.24% | |
| 17. | 2021/05/31 | $504.58 | -0.74% | 4,204.11 | 0.55% | |
| 18. | 2021/06/30 | $585.64 | 16.06% | 4,297.50 | 2.22% | |
| 19. | 2021/07/31 | $621.63 | 6.15% | 4,395.26 | 2.27% | |
| 20. | 2021/08/31 | $663.70 | 6.77% | 4,522.68 | 2.90% | |
| 21. | 2021/09/30 | $575.72 | -13.26% | 4,307.54 | -4.76% | |
| 22. | 2021/10/31 | $650.36 | 12.96% | 4,605.38 | 6.91% | |
| 23. | 2021/11/30 | $669.85 | 3.00% | 4,567.00 | -0.83% | |
| 24. | 2021/12/31 | $567.06 | -15.35% | 4,766.18 | 4.36% | |
| 25. | 2022/01/31 | $534.30 | -5.78% | 4,515.55 | -5.26% | |
| 26. | 2022/02/28 | $467.68 | -12.47% | 4,373.94 | -3.14% | |
| 27. | 2022/03/31 | $455.62 | -2.58% | 4,530.41 | 3.58% | |
| 28. | 2022/04/30 | $395.95 | -13.10% | 4,131.93 | -8.80% | |
| 29. | 2022/05/31 | $416.48 | 5.18% | 4,132.15 | 0.01% | |
| 30. | 2022/06/30 | $366.06 | -12.11% | 3,785.38 | -8.39% | |
| 31. | 2022/07/31 | $410.12 | 12.04% | 4,130.29 | 9.11% | |
| 32. | 2022/08/31 | $373.44 | -8.94% | 3,955.00 | -4.24% | |
| 33. | 2022/09/30 | $275.20 | -26.31% | 3,585.62 | -9.34% | |
| 34. | 2022/10/31 | $318.50 | 15.73% | 3,871.98 | 7.99% | |
| 35. | 2022/11/30 | $344.93 | 8.30% | 4,080.11 | 5.38% | |
| 36. | 2022/12/31 | $336.53 | -2.44% | 3,839.50 | -5.90% | |
| 37. | 2023/01/31 | $370.34 | 10.05% | 4,076.60 | 6.18% | |
| 38. | 2023/02/28 | $323.95 | -12.53% | 3,970.15 | -2.61% | |
| 39. | 2023/03/31 | $385.37 | 18.96% | 4,109.31 | 3.51% | |
| 40. | 2023/04/30 | $377.56 | -2.03% | 4,169.48 | 1.46% | |
| 41. | 2023/05/31 | $417.79 | 10.66% | 4,179.83 | 0.25% | |
| 42. | 2023/06/30 | $488.99 | 17.04% | 4,376.86 | 4.71% | |
| 43. | 2023/07/31 | $546.17 | 11.69% | 4,588.96 | 4.85% | |
| 44. | 2023/08/31 | $559.34 | 2.41% | 4,507.66 | -1.77% | |
| 45. | 2023/09/30 | $509.90 | -8.84% | 4,288.05 | -4.87% | |
| 46. | 2023/10/31 | $532.06 | 4.35% | 4,193.80 | -2.20% | |
| 47. | 2023/11/30 | $611.01 | 14.84% | 4,567.80 | 8.92% | |
| 48. | 2023/12/31 | $596.60 | -2.36% | 4,769.83 | 4.42% | |
| 49. | 2024/01/31 | $617.78 | 3.55% | 4,845.65 | 1.59% | |
| 50. | 2024/02/29 | $560.28 | -9.31% | 5,096.27 | 5.17% | |
| 51. | 2024/03/31 | $504.60 | -9.94% | 5,254.35 | 3.10% | |
| 52. | 2024/04/30 | $462.83 | -8.28% | 5,035.69 | -4.16% | |
| 53. | 2024/05/31 | $444.76 | -3.90% | 5,277.51 | 4.80% | |
| 54. | 2024/06/30 | $555.54 | 24.91% | 5,460.48 | 3.47% | |
| 55. | 2024/07/31 | $551.65 | -0.70% | 5,522.30 | 1.13% | |
| 56. | 2024/08/31 | $574.41 | 4.13% | 5,648.40 | 2.28% | |
| 57. | 2024/09/30 | $517.78 | -9.86% | 5,762.48 | 2.02% | |
| 58. | 2024/10/31 | $478.08 | -7.67% | 5,705.45 | -0.99% | |
| 59. | 2024/11/30 | $515.93 | 7.92% | 6,032.38 | 5.73% | |
| 60. | 2024/12/31 | $444.68 | -13.81% | 5,881.63 | -2.50% | |
| 61. | 2025/01/31 | $437.45 | -1.63% | 6,040.53 | 2.70% | |
| 62. | 2025/02/28 | $438.56 | 0.25% | 5,954.50 | -1.42% | |
| 63. | 2025/03/31 | $383.53 | -12.55% | 5,611.85 | -5.75% | |
| 64. | 2025/04/30 | $374.98 | -2.23% | 5,569.06 | -0.76% | |
| 65. | 2025/05/31 | $415.09 | 10.70% | 5,911.69 | 6.15% | |
| 66. | 2025/06/30 | $386.88 | -6.80% | 6,204.95 | 4.96% | |
| 67. | 2025/07/31 | $357.69 | -7.54% | 6,339.39 | 2.17% | |
| 68. | 2025/08/31 | $356.70 | -0.28% | 6,460.26 | 1.91% | |
| 69. | 2025/09/30 | $352.75 | -1.11% | 6,688.46 | 3.53% | |
| 70. | 2025/10/31 | $340.31 | -3.53% | 6,840.20 | 2.27% | |
| 71. | 2025/11/30 | $320.13 | -5.93% | 6,849.09 | 0.13% | |
| 平均 (R): | 0.45% | 1.19% | ||||
| 標準偏差： | 9.97% | 4.97% | ||||
すべて表示
1 普通株式1株当たり米ドルのデータで、分割と株式配当を調整したものです。
2 期間tにおけるADBEの普通株式の収益率。
3 期間 tにおけるS&P 500(市場ポートフォリオの代理)の収益率。
分散と共分散
Adobe Inc.、分散の計算、および戻り値の共分散
| t | 日付 | RADBE,t | RS&P 500,t | (RADBE,t–RADBE)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RADBE,t–RADBE)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 2020/01/31 | 6.47% | -0.16% | 36.21 | 1.82 | -8.12 |
| 2. | 2020/02/29 | -1.71% | -8.41% | 4.68 | 92.11 | 20.77 |
| 3. | 2020/03/31 | -7.79% | -12.51% | 67.87 | 187.64 | 112.85 |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| . | . | . | . | . | . | . |
| 70. | 2025/10/31 | -3.53% | 2.27% | 15.81 | 1.17 | -4.30 |
| 71. | 2025/11/30 | -5.93% | 0.13% | 40.70 | 1.12 | 6.74 |
| トータル (Σ): | 6,963.78 | 1,729.74 | 2,227.36 | |||
| t | 日付 | RADBE,t | RS&P 500,t | (RADBE,t–RADBE)2 | (RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 | (RADBE,t–RADBE)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | 2020/01/31 | 6.47% | -0.16% | 36.21 | 1.82 | -8.12 |
| 2. | 2020/02/29 | -1.71% | -8.41% | 4.68 | 92.11 | 20.77 |
| 3. | 2020/03/31 | -7.79% | -12.51% | 67.87 | 187.64 | 112.85 |
| 4. | 2020/04/30 | 11.12% | 12.68% | 113.94 | 132.21 | 122.73 |
| 5. | 2020/05/31 | 9.32% | 4.53% | 78.69 | 11.17 | 29.64 |
| 6. | 2020/06/30 | 12.60% | 1.84% | 147.62 | 0.43 | 7.93 |
| 7. | 2020/07/31 | 2.07% | 5.51% | 2.63 | 18.70 | 7.01 |
| 8. | 2020/08/31 | 15.55% | 7.01% | 227.87 | 33.87 | 87.86 |
| 9. | 2020/09/30 | -4.47% | -3.92% | 24.22 | 26.10 | 25.15 |
| 10. | 2020/10/31 | -8.84% | -2.77% | 86.21 | 15.63 | 36.70 |
| 11. | 2020/11/30 | 7.02% | 10.75% | 43.12 | 91.55 | 62.83 |
| 12. | 2020/12/31 | 4.52% | 3.71% | 16.61 | 6.38 | 10.29 |
| 13. | 2021/01/31 | -8.27% | -1.11% | 76.00 | 5.29 | 20.05 |
| 14. | 2021/02/28 | 0.20% | 2.61% | 0.06 | 2.02 | -0.36 |
| 15. | 2021/03/31 | 3.42% | 4.24% | 8.80 | 9.35 | 9.07 |
| 16. | 2021/04/30 | 6.94% | 5.24% | 42.07 | 16.45 | 26.31 |
| 17. | 2021/05/31 | -0.74% | 0.55% | 1.41 | 0.41 | 0.76 |
| 18. | 2021/06/30 | 16.06% | 2.22% | 243.84 | 1.07 | 16.16 |
| 19. | 2021/07/31 | 6.15% | 2.27% | 32.44 | 1.18 | 6.20 |
| 20. | 2021/08/31 | 6.77% | 2.90% | 39.92 | 2.93 | 10.82 |
| 21. | 2021/09/30 | -13.26% | -4.76% | 187.84 | 35.32 | 81.46 |
| 22. | 2021/10/31 | 12.96% | 6.91% | 156.63 | 32.81 | 71.69 |
| 23. | 2021/11/30 | 3.00% | -0.83% | 6.49 | 4.08 | -5.14 |
| 24. | 2021/12/31 | -15.35% | 4.36% | 249.48 | 10.08 | -50.15 |
| 25. | 2022/01/31 | -5.78% | -5.26% | 38.77 | 41.54 | 40.13 |
| 26. | 2022/02/28 | -12.47% | -3.14% | 166.88 | 18.68 | 55.84 |
| 27. | 2022/03/31 | -2.58% | 3.58% | 9.17 | 5.72 | -7.24 |
| 28. | 2022/04/30 | -13.10% | -8.80% | 183.49 | 99.64 | 135.22 |
| 29. | 2022/05/31 | 5.18% | 0.01% | 22.42 | 1.39 | -5.59 |
| 30. | 2022/06/30 | -12.11% | -8.39% | 157.65 | 91.74 | 120.26 |
| 31. | 2022/07/31 | 12.04% | 9.11% | 134.25 | 62.81 | 91.83 |
| 32. | 2022/08/31 | -8.94% | -4.24% | 88.23 | 29.49 | 51.01 |
| 33. | 2022/09/30 | -26.31% | -9.34% | 715.90 | 110.79 | 281.63 |
| 34. | 2022/10/31 | 15.73% | 7.99% | 233.61 | 46.24 | 103.93 |
| 35. | 2022/11/30 | 8.30% | 5.38% | 61.60 | 17.55 | 32.88 |
| 36. | 2022/12/31 | -2.44% | -5.90% | 8.32 | 50.18 | 20.43 |
| 37. | 2023/01/31 | 10.05% | 6.18% | 92.10 | 24.89 | 47.88 |
| 38. | 2023/02/28 | -12.53% | -2.61% | 168.37 | 14.42 | 49.28 |
| 39. | 2023/03/31 | 18.96% | 3.51% | 342.63 | 5.38 | 42.92 |
| 40. | 2023/04/30 | -2.03% | 1.46% | 6.13 | 0.08 | -0.69 |
| 41. | 2023/05/31 | 10.66% | 0.25% | 104.16 | 0.88 | -9.57 |
| 42. | 2023/06/30 | 17.04% | 4.71% | 275.31 | 12.44 | 58.53 |
| 43. | 2023/07/31 | 11.69% | 4.85% | 126.43 | 13.39 | 41.15 |
| 44. | 2023/08/31 | 2.41% | -1.77% | 3.85 | 8.75 | -5.80 |
| 45. | 2023/09/30 | -8.84% | -4.87% | 86.28 | 36.70 | 56.27 |
| 46. | 2023/10/31 | 4.35% | -2.20% | 15.18 | 11.45 | -13.19 |
| 47. | 2023/11/30 | 14.84% | 8.92% | 207.04 | 59.78 | 111.25 |
| 48. | 2023/12/31 | -2.36% | 4.42% | 7.88 | 10.48 | -9.09 |
| 49. | 2024/01/31 | 3.55% | 1.59% | 9.61 | 0.16 | 1.25 |
| 50. | 2024/02/29 | -9.31% | 5.17% | 95.20 | 15.89 | -38.89 |
| 51. | 2024/03/31 | -9.94% | 3.10% | 107.90 | 3.67 | -19.90 |
| 52. | 2024/04/30 | -8.28% | -4.16% | 76.17 | 28.60 | 46.67 |
| 53. | 2024/05/31 | -3.90% | 4.80% | 18.96 | 13.07 | -15.74 |
| 54. | 2024/06/30 | 24.91% | 3.47% | 598.21 | 5.20 | 55.78 |
| 55. | 2024/07/31 | -0.70% | 1.13% | 1.32 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| 56. | 2024/08/31 | 4.13% | 2.28% | 13.51 | 1.20 | 4.03 |
| 57. | 2024/09/30 | -9.86% | 2.02% | 106.26 | 0.69 | -8.59 |
| 58. | 2024/10/31 | -7.67% | -0.99% | 65.88 | 4.74 | 17.66 |
| 59. | 2024/11/30 | 7.92% | 5.73% | 55.76 | 20.65 | 33.93 |
| 60. | 2024/12/31 | -13.81% | -2.50% | 203.34 | 13.58 | 52.55 |
| 61. | 2025/01/31 | -1.63% | 2.70% | 4.31 | 2.30 | -3.14 |
| 62. | 2025/02/28 | 0.25% | -1.42% | 0.04 | 6.81 | 0.51 |
| 63. | 2025/03/31 | -12.55% | -5.75% | 168.93 | 48.17 | 90.21 |
| 64. | 2025/04/30 | -2.23% | -0.76% | 7.18 | 3.80 | 5.22 |
| 65. | 2025/05/31 | 10.70% | 6.15% | 105.00 | 24.66 | 50.89 |
| 66. | 2025/06/30 | -6.80% | 4.96% | 52.50 | 14.25 | -27.35 |
| 67. | 2025/07/31 | -7.54% | 2.17% | 63.91 | 0.96 | -7.84 |
| 68. | 2025/08/31 | -0.28% | 1.91% | 0.53 | 0.52 | -0.52 |
| 69. | 2025/09/30 | -1.11% | 3.53% | 2.42 | 5.50 | -3.65 |
| 70. | 2025/10/31 | -3.53% | 2.27% | 15.81 | 1.17 | -4.30 |
| 71. | 2025/11/30 | -5.93% | 0.13% | 40.70 | 1.12 | 6.74 |
| トータル (Σ): | 6,963.78 | 1,729.74 | 2,227.36 | |||
すべて表示
分散ADBE = Σ(RADBE,t–RADBE)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 6,963.78 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 99.48
分散S&P 500 = Σ(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500)2 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 1,729.74 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 24.71
共 分散ADBE, S&P 500 = Σ(RADBE,t–RADBE)×(RS&P 500,t–RS&P 500) ÷ (71 – 1)
= 2,227.36 ÷ (71 – 1)
= 31.82
システマティックなリスク推定 (β)
| 分散ADBE | 99.48 |
| 分散S&P 500 | 24.71 |
| 共 分散ADBE, S&P 500 | 31.82 |
| 相関係数ADBE, S&P 5001 | 0.64 |
| βADBE2 | 1.29 |
| αADBE3 | -1.08% |
計算
1 相関係数ADBE, S&P 500
= 共 分散ADBE, S&P 500 ÷ (標準偏差ADBE × 標準偏差S&P 500)
= 31.82 ÷ (9.97% × 4.97%)
= 0.64
2 βADBE
= 共 分散ADBE, S&P 500 ÷ 分散S&P 500
= 31.82 ÷ 24.71
= 1.29
3 αADBE
= 平均ADBE – βADBE × 平均S&P 500
= 0.45% – 1.29 × 1.19%
= -1.08%
期待収益率
| 仮定 | ||
| LT国債総合の収益率1 | RF | 4.94% |
| 市場ポートフォリオの期待収益率2 | E(RM) | 17.36% |
| 普通株式 Adobe システマティックリスク | βADBE | 1.29 |
| アドビ普通株式の期待収益率3 | E(RADBE) | 20.93% |
1 10年以内に期限が到来しない、または償還不能となるすべての発行済み固定利回り米国債の入札利回りの加重平均(リスクフリー・リターン・プロキシ)。
2 詳しく見る »
3 E(RADBE) = RF + βADBE [E(RM) – RF]
= 4.94% + 1.29 [17.36% – 4.94%]
= 20.93%